That would indicate winds of 200 miles per hour, or more, could be on the way.But Masters said the European and HWRF models factor in the immediate impact of the winds in stirring up colder, sub-surface ocean water. That afternoon, Irma cut a path directly through the British Virgin Islands. Five hours later, the eye of Irma moved over St. Martin, still with 185 mph winds, while the northern eyewall pounded Anguilla. What will be the exact location, and strength, of pressure systems around the U.S. that will determine when Irma turns northward?The huge storm will look for the path of least resistance — probably toward a trough of low pressure to the north. Like many of you, I've been anxiously watching news and updated models for Hurricane Irma. However, because Irma ultimately hit Florida as a slightly weakened storm, and in a less populated part of the state, Irma spared Florida from an even more catastrophic impact.The National Hurricane Center’s ability to issue consistent forecasts days ahead of time highlights how much hurricane track forecasting has improved over time. The storm’s 5-day track forecasts were remarkably successful – in no small part thanks to improvements in weather prediction models and data from NOAA satellites.Hurricane Irma was one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic. Predictions made four days prior to landfall still end up being an average of about 175 miles off the mark, said Masters.Even with all the models and improvements, experts still don’t know a couple of crucial things about Irma: How will local "steering currents" fluctuate, hour by hour, to redirect the storm as it gets closer to shore? After traveling more than 3,000 miles across the Atlantic, Irma made its last landfall as a formidable Category 3 storm in southwest Florida (at Marco Island) on September 10.Irma ultimately tracked about 100 miles farther west than some weather models and the National Hurricane Center were predicting days before the storm made landfall. Britain’s UKMET system is known for accuracy derived, like the European system, from high-powered 4D modeling. The relatively small errors in the predicted and actual track of Irma are an example of the continued improvement in hurricane track forecasting. That colder water will tend to decrease the power of the storm, increase pressures into the 920-millibar range, and reduce wind speeds. Rick Scott: Irma is 'an unbelievable hurricane'. No single computer model should be relied on.
That would indicate winds of 200 miles per hour, or more, could be on the way.But Masters said the European and HWRF models factor in the immediate impact of the winds in stirring up colder, sub-surface ocean water. That afternoon, Irma cut a path directly through the British Virgin Islands. Five hours later, the eye of Irma moved over St. Martin, still with 185 mph winds, while the northern eyewall pounded Anguilla. What will be the exact location, and strength, of pressure systems around the U.S. that will determine when Irma turns northward?The huge storm will look for the path of least resistance — probably toward a trough of low pressure to the north. Like many of you, I've been anxiously watching news and updated models for Hurricane Irma. However, because Irma ultimately hit Florida as a slightly weakened storm, and in a less populated part of the state, Irma spared Florida from an even more catastrophic impact.The National Hurricane Center’s ability to issue consistent forecasts days ahead of time highlights how much hurricane track forecasting has improved over time. The storm’s 5-day track forecasts were remarkably successful – in no small part thanks to improvements in weather prediction models and data from NOAA satellites.Hurricane Irma was one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic. Predictions made four days prior to landfall still end up being an average of about 175 miles off the mark, said Masters.Even with all the models and improvements, experts still don’t know a couple of crucial things about Irma: How will local "steering currents" fluctuate, hour by hour, to redirect the storm as it gets closer to shore? After traveling more than 3,000 miles across the Atlantic, Irma made its last landfall as a formidable Category 3 storm in southwest Florida (at Marco Island) on September 10.Irma ultimately tracked about 100 miles farther west than some weather models and the National Hurricane Center were predicting days before the storm made landfall. Britain’s UKMET system is known for accuracy derived, like the European system, from high-powered 4D modeling. The relatively small errors in the predicted and actual track of Irma are an example of the continued improvement in hurricane track forecasting. That colder water will tend to decrease the power of the storm, increase pressures into the 920-millibar range, and reduce wind speeds. Rick Scott: Irma is 'an unbelievable hurricane'. No single computer model should be relied on.
That would indicate winds of 200 miles per hour, or more, could be on the way.But Masters said the European and HWRF models factor in the immediate impact of the winds in stirring up colder, sub-surface ocean water. That afternoon, Irma cut a path directly through the British Virgin Islands. Five hours later, the eye of Irma moved over St. Martin, still with 185 mph winds, while the northern eyewall pounded Anguilla. What will be the exact location, and strength, of pressure systems around the U.S. that will determine when Irma turns northward?The huge storm will look for the path of least resistance — probably toward a trough of low pressure to the north. Like many of you, I've been anxiously watching news and updated models for Hurricane Irma. However, because Irma ultimately hit Florida as a slightly weakened storm, and in a less populated part of the state, Irma spared Florida from an even more catastrophic impact.The National Hurricane Center’s ability to issue consistent forecasts days ahead of time highlights how much hurricane track forecasting has improved over time. The storm’s 5-day track forecasts were remarkably successful – in no small part thanks to improvements in weather prediction models and data from NOAA satellites.Hurricane Irma was one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic. Predictions made four days prior to landfall still end up being an average of about 175 miles off the mark, said Masters.Even with all the models and improvements, experts still don’t know a couple of crucial things about Irma: How will local "steering currents" fluctuate, hour by hour, to redirect the storm as it gets closer to shore? After traveling more than 3,000 miles across the Atlantic, Irma made its last landfall as a formidable Category 3 storm in southwest Florida (at Marco Island) on September 10.Irma ultimately tracked about 100 miles farther west than some weather models and the National Hurricane Center were predicting days before the storm made landfall. Britain’s UKMET system is known for accuracy derived, like the European system, from high-powered 4D modeling. The relatively small errors in the predicted and actual track of Irma are an example of the continued improvement in hurricane track forecasting. That colder water will tend to decrease the power of the storm, increase pressures into the 920-millibar range, and reduce wind speeds. Rick Scott: Irma is 'an unbelievable hurricane'. No single computer model should be relied on.
Only a day after it was first named a tropical storm on August 30, Irma had quickly strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane, with sustained winds of 115 mph. One major factor that can't yet be determined: whether Irma will hit Cuba and lose power along with the energy-sustaining warmth it gained over the open ocean.The best hurricane forecasting systems today are global models that solve the mathematical equations about the behavior of the atmosphere all over the world, said Jeff Masters, director of meteorology at the,Tops among half a dozen of these systems in recent years has been the.The models, known as four-dimensional variational data assimilations (or 4D-Var) are expensive and take longer to assemble — producing two projections a day compared to the faster modeling systems run in the United States, which produce four or more projections every 24 hours.The results from the European system, an intergovernmental alliance of 34 nations, are available only to members and collaborators. The storm was downgraded to a Category 3 but was projected to regain strength before hitting Florida. So while the GFS model might indicate “a ridiculous, totally off the scale, hurricane," Masters said, "the other models say it’s likely we merely have a ridiculous hurricane.”.As much as the science of hurricane prediction has improved, there is a lot left to know.
That would indicate winds of 200 miles per hour, or more, could be on the way.But Masters said the European and HWRF models factor in the immediate impact of the winds in stirring up colder, sub-surface ocean water. That afternoon, Irma cut a path directly through the British Virgin Islands. Five hours later, the eye of Irma moved over St. Martin, still with 185 mph winds, while the northern eyewall pounded Anguilla. What will be the exact location, and strength, of pressure systems around the U.S. that will determine when Irma turns northward?The huge storm will look for the path of least resistance — probably toward a trough of low pressure to the north. Like many of you, I've been anxiously watching news and updated models for Hurricane Irma. However, because Irma ultimately hit Florida as a slightly weakened storm, and in a less populated part of the state, Irma spared Florida from an even more catastrophic impact.The National Hurricane Center’s ability to issue consistent forecasts days ahead of time highlights how much hurricane track forecasting has improved over time. The storm’s 5-day track forecasts were remarkably successful – in no small part thanks to improvements in weather prediction models and data from NOAA satellites.Hurricane Irma was one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic. Predictions made four days prior to landfall still end up being an average of about 175 miles off the mark, said Masters.Even with all the models and improvements, experts still don’t know a couple of crucial things about Irma: How will local "steering currents" fluctuate, hour by hour, to redirect the storm as it gets closer to shore? After traveling more than 3,000 miles across the Atlantic, Irma made its last landfall as a formidable Category 3 storm in southwest Florida (at Marco Island) on September 10.Irma ultimately tracked about 100 miles farther west than some weather models and the National Hurricane Center were predicting days before the storm made landfall. Britain’s UKMET system is known for accuracy derived, like the European system, from high-powered 4D modeling. The relatively small errors in the predicted and actual track of Irma are an example of the continued improvement in hurricane track forecasting. That colder water will tend to decrease the power of the storm, increase pressures into the 920-millibar range, and reduce wind speeds. Rick Scott: Irma is 'an unbelievable hurricane'. No single computer model should be relied on.
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